Europe’s fiscal outlook appears in some ways worse today than in March 2012, potentially raising the prospect of financial shocks and higher credit default risks.
An analysis of recent search volume shows that Brexit may affect assets related to longer-term economic effects more than assets tied to monetary policy.
Applying a natural language processing algo to Fed meeting minutes shows a sharp post-crisis rise in the amount of time the Fed spent discussing financial markets.
Seemingly subtle differences in the precise definition and construction of a risk factor can create meaningful divergences in its performance.
Greece again finds itself on an economic precipice, with CDS spreads nearing a level on par with last summer’s crisis. A look at potential short- and long-term consequences.
Recent labor, productivity, and population growth data suggest that the US may struggle to return to its pre-Great Recession annual GDP growth rate of 3% or higher.
Respondents to a Two Sigma poll of sell-side professionals ranked a China hard-landing as their top concern, but they see a market liquidity event as the most immediate threat.
The Fed expects to hike interest rates four times (by 25bps each) during 2016, while the market projects only two hikes. One side has to give.
A form of portfolio insurance has grown more expensive recently. Multiple potential causes exist, from regulatory changes to fears about the global outlook.
The statistical relationship between US wages and consumer prices has broken down since 2008, potentially heralding greater uncertainty for Fed watchers.