The authors investigate the interrelationships between macro-systems of governments and financial institutions by studying the dynamic propagation mechanisms of macroeconomic shocks.
Sixty-five percent of respondents worry about the loss of G3 central bank credibility, defined as the ability of those banks to influence economic growth and market prices.
Data on highly skilled (H-1B) foreign workers suggests that wage pressure in the US may be coming from the bottom end of the distribution more than the top.
Fed and ECB data shows that the level of disagreement across forecasters today is within the historical norm, but uncertainty appears higher than ever, particularly in Europe.
Europe’s fiscal outlook appears in some ways worse today than in March 2012, potentially raising the prospect of financial shocks and higher credit default risks.
An analysis of recent search volume shows that Brexit may affect assets related to longer-term economic effects more than assets tied to monetary policy.
Applying a natural language processing algo to Fed meeting minutes shows a sharp post-crisis rise in the amount of time the Fed spent discussing financial markets.
Seemingly subtle differences in the precise definition and construction of a risk factor can create meaningful divergences in its performance.
Greece again finds itself on an economic precipice, with CDS spreads nearing a level on par with last summer’s crisis. A look at potential short- and long-term consequences.
Recent labor, productivity, and population growth data suggest that the US may struggle to return to its pre-Great Recession annual GDP growth rate of 3% or higher.